U.S. Outlook Brightens but Risks Persist

Prepared by Northern Trust’s Global Economic Research team, this report assesses the shifting U.S. economic landscape as 2025 enters its final quarter.

• Labor Market: Job gains remain subdued (22,000 in August), with youth and minority employment under strain; unemployment steady at 4.3%.

• Monetary Policy: Fed resumed rate cuts after nine months, signaling two more reductions in 2025 and modest easing into 2026.

• Inflation & Markets: Core CPI at 3.1%, tariff effects lingering; Treasury demand resilient, housing market cooling in key regions.

How might these dynamics shape portfolio positioning into 2026? Explore the full report for deeper analysis