Prepared by Edmond de Rothschild’s CIO office, this January 2026 strategy note frames the coming year as a shift from financial excess toward a broad, real-economy CAPEX cycle driven by AI, reindustrialisation, and state priorities.
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Liquidity is migrating from markets into tangible investment, pressuring Big Tech balance sheets and signalling peak index concentration.
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AI infrastructure spending favours second-order beneficiaries such as semiconductors, power grids, cybersecurity, and automation rather than the Magnificent 7 themselves.
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Banks emerge as central transmission mechanisms for deficit financing and investment, supported by policy, yield-curve dynamics, and balance-sheet leverage.
Where does performance accrue when capital finally turns into matter rather than multiples?
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