Managed Transition, Limited Oil Shock: Markets Reprice Venezuela Risk

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This report, authored by senior geopolitical and macro strategists at Amundi Investment Institute, assesses the market and geopolitical implications of the US intervention in Venezuela. 

  • Maduro’s removal points to a managed political transition, reducing immediate domestic disruption but leaving material medium-term governance risks.

  • Near-term oil market effects are modest; production constraints limit upside, while longer-term supply recovery could weigh on prices.

  • Venezuelan sovereign debt may see selective upside, contingent on sustained investment, legal clarity, and oil cash-flow restoration.

The full report explores how these dynamics may reshape geopolitics, oil markets, and portfolio allocation decisions in greater depth.

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