RBNZ on Hold—for Now, but Hawkish Risks Are Rising

This article previews the 18 February RBNZ meeting, arguing that unchanged rates may mask a materially more hawkish outlook 

• Inflation has surprised to the upside (3.1% YoY headline vs 2.7% projected), raising the likelihood of upward revisions to both CPI and the policy path.

• Markets price limited tightening before late 2026, yet ING expects two hikes from 3Q26, taking rates to 2.75% by year-end.

• Labour data and PMIs signal stabilising growth, supporting the case for eventual tightening and medium-term NZD strength.

Will new projections validate tightening expectations—or delay them further? The full preview details rate and FX implications.