Turkey’s Macro Stabilisation Is Being Tested by Geopolitics Again

ING’s latest Turkey monitor argues that recent regional tensions have not derailed Ankara’s policy framework, but they are materially complicating the inflation, growth, and external balance outlook. 

• ING raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 27.5% from 25.5%, citing higher energy costs, expectations pressure, and fiscal trade-offs.
• Growth was cut to 3.0% from 3.4%, as tighter financial conditions and weaker net exports weigh on momentum.
• The lira is expected to remain broadly managed, with USD/TRY seen at 46.6 by mid-year despite reserve depletion and earlier capital outflows.

Turkey’s challenge is no longer choosing between growth and inflation—it is defending both simultaneously.