US Exceptionalism Is No Longer a Free Bet

Robeco argues that 15 years of American outperformance have quietly turned a successful trade into a portfolio assumption. The US remains dominant, but the conditions required to sustain that dominance are becoming more demanding.

• US exceptionalism increasingly rests on a narrow group of mega-cap technology and AI companies, leaving global portfolios more concentrated than headline diversification suggests.

• Meanwhile, Europe, emerging markets, small caps, defensive equities and value stocks all trade at meaningful discounts to the global market. European equities, for example, trade at 18x earnings versus 24x globally, with a 2.8% dividend yield versus 1.61%.

• Crucially, these are not variations of the same anti-US trade. Historically their relative returns have shown low correlations, meaning different regimes favour different segments.

Read the full report for why the next phase of global investing may be less about finding a replacement for US exceptionalism and more about reducing dependence on it.